Phaneuf will wear the Maple Leaf afterall

When Dion Phaneuf scored on a one-timer to put the Flames up 4-1 on the Oilers last night, I couldn’t help but wonder how many more times we would see Phaneuf celebrating as a Flame. Daryl Sutter didn’t keep me waiting long for the answer.

I won’t belabour the details of the trade, since you can get those from any of a variety of reputable (or not) news sources. I do have some thoughts of my own to add to the analysis, though.

It’s all about goals

This is a very simplified take on things, but take a look at the goals scored among the players traded in this deal. Phaneuf and Sjostrom total 11 goals, while the foursome on their way to Calgary have tallied 47 this season (point totals are 28 and 108, respectively). Obviously there are plenty more variables at play here, but one thing is obvious to me: this trade is meant to address Calgary’s scoring troubles. Matt Stajan’s 41 point immediately make him the Flames’ second-leading scorer, trailing only Jarome Iginla (by 10 points), and leading Rene Bourque by a single point. This leads me to agree with Pierre McGuire; on NBC this morning he called this trade a great short-term deal for the Flames, but good in the long-term for the Leafs. Obviously there’s the whole prospect thing at play where Aulie is concerned, but I suspect that McGuire is suggesting Phaneuf will pay dividends in Toronto as well. I’m not so sure…

Phaneuf in Toronto

Dion Phanuef strikes me as the type of player who is susceptible to distraction and pressure. If you’re a Maple Leaf, Toronto boasts distractions and pressure aplenty; I don’t think Toronto is the change of scenery that this guy needs. My prediction is that he will be wearing a different team’s colours within three years. Much like Joe Thornton, I think Dion Phaneuf would benefit from the obscurity of playing in a non-traditional hockey market.

The dollars and cents

The Flames have been making use of pretty much their full cap space since the beginning of the salary cap era. How does this deal affect the cap situation? In short, it frees up 4.25 million dollars for next season. Between Sjostrom and Phaneuf, the Flames are moving $7.25 million, and in return are accepting $6.93 million in return; however, Stajan, Mayers, and White are all free agents after this year (White being RFA, currently making $850,000). This means that Hagman is the only player committed to beyond next season. Meanwhile, the Flames rid themselves of Phaneuf’s $6.5 million cap hit that extends to 2014. This certainly opens up more opportunities for what Sutter can do in the off-season (spoiler: Bourque and Giordano get their earned raises AND stay in Calgary).

The verdict

The writing has been on the wall for a while where Phaneuf is concerned. Despite the repeated denials by Sutter and Phaneuf, you got the feeling that something was going to go down. By trading for several players like this as opposed to trying to land a one-for-one marquee deal or a high cost rental (ie. Kovalchuk), Sutter is spreading out the risk at the cost of potential impact. This deal should immediately give the Flames some improved scoring depth, dipping into an area where they already have considerable talent in order to pay for it. In the long-term it allows them to unload a contract that is starting to look overpriced. Ultimately, this trade gets my approval for that reason.

What next?

Think Sutter’s going to call it quits after this deal? I doubt it. I tend to agree with Kent Wilson over on Matchsticks and Gasoline about Martin Biron being an attractive target as a back-up for Kipper. I’ve heard some positive sentiment towards Curtis McElhinney lately, but consider this quote from Kent’s article:

Curtis McElhinney is currently 71st in the league in terms of ES SV%. That’s the single worst 5on5 save rate of any goalie that has appeared in 10 games this year.

It would make sense to add a little insurance if this team wants to be a serious contender.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

Hey, did you hear we won a game last night? And we scored six goals. It was against the Oilers, so take it for what it’s worth, but still, it’s nice to break out of that rut. On the topic of that game, I think Sheldon Souray would be well advised to stay away from Jarome Iginla; nothing good comes of that (so far this season: concussion and fractured hand). Come to think of it, he should maybe try to avoid fighting altogether (see: fight with Byron Ritchie where he suffered a separated shoulder).

I imagine we’ll get a look at the new faces tomorrow night against the Flyers. Back in the win column and time to get serious.