The hours-old news that the NHL has nullified Ilya Kovalchuk’s 17-year, $100+ million contract doesn’t come as a huge surprise to me, but it has raised some questions regarding other similarly front-loaded contracts that have been agreed to in the cap era. Some of the names that I saw thrown out there today included Luongo, Pronger, Hossa, Keith, Zetterberg, Franzen, and Richards. This got me curious about how these contracts compare. I put together a simple analysis that can perhaps give us some insight into why Kovalchuk’s contract merits league intervention while the others were allowed to slide.

The approach I took was to calculate the standard deviation for the yearly values of the contract and then divide that by the cap hit. The standard deviation gives us a variance of the yearly values of the contract, giving us a numerical representation of how front-loaded the contract is. If all of the contracts were similarly valued, we could probably stop there, but calculating what percentage of that player’s cap hit that is, we now have a standardized number for the sake of comparison. My hypothesis here is that, generally speaking, higher variance compared against the cap hit would indicate a greater circumvention of the salary cap (ie. a high degree of front-loading makes things fishy).

What this doesn’t take into account is the length of the contract and the player’s age. Both of these factors are likely to have been considered in the NHL’s judgement of this contract, but they don’t play a roll in these numbers.

Let’s get to it:

Based on this metric, we have a pretty noticeable jump from Kovy to the rest of the pack, and not so surprisingly Pronger and Hossa are the next two on the list.

This, to me, is an interesting statistic, but I think the more important consideration here is the likelihood that a player will retire shortly after the bulk of the front-loaded payments are paid out. If Kovalchuk were to actually play out the entirety of this contract, then there’s no harm done. Remember that while a team enjoys a low cap hit in the early years of a front-loaded contract, they will see a heavier cap hit in the later years of the contract if the player opts not to retire. On the other hand, as CapGeek.com points out, Kovalchuk could retire at 37 and his contract is effectively 10 years at $9.5 million, saving the Devils $3.5 million in cap space every year (that’s like being able to add Rene Bourque to your roster with no cap implications).

A contract like Mike Richards’ doesn’t bother me at all. That contract takes him until he’s 35; I’d say the odds of him retiring by then are pretty low. Sure, he’s got a $8.4 million year that will cound $5.75 against the cap, but there are also two $3 million years that will still count $5.75, and chances are those will be on somebody’s cap hit.

Therein lies the difference between spreading the cap hit and circumventing it. My suggestion for the NHL in the next CBA: Adapt the existing 35+ rule. Perhaps the age for that should be 37; Should a player sign a contract that extends beyond his 37th birthday, the cap hit endures for the duration of the contract, even if the player should retire.

Any way you slice it, Kovalchuk’s deal is blatant cap circumvention where some of the others may be in a bit of a murky area, and naturally my statistics (or perhaps lies and damned lies) back it up.

There are my thoughts on the whole circus. Of course, as long as Sutter is GM in Calgary it’s unlikely we’ll have this kind of situation to cope with. Let’s just say his financial terms don’t usually hold this kind of sophistication.

Playoff pool time. The Flames aren’t going to win anything, but that doesn’t mean you can’t.

Send me an email at joshua@redwall.ca to get involved with ours.

That’s what it will take for the Flames to get into the 2010 Playoffs…

Breaking down the stretch drive now, it doesn’t look good.

CALGARY:

• 5 Road Games
• 3 Home Games
• 1 Game vs Sub .500 team (Minnesota)
• 1 Back-to-back (BOS & WAS)
• Most important game (ALL but especially AT Colorado)
• Teams to catch: DET; COL; NAS

DETROIT:

• 4 Road Games
• 4 Home Games
• Play Columbus 3 times; Edmonton once
• Most important games (2 vs. Nashville)
• 6pt lead on 9th place Calgary

COLORADO:

• 4 Road Games
• 4 Home Games
• 3 games vs. Non-Playoff teams (Cgy; Edm; Ana)
• Most important (vs. the Flames)
• 6pt lead on 9th place Calgary
• 2 x back-to-back games

NASHVILLE:

• 3 Road Games
• 3 Home Games
• 3 games vs Non-Playoff teams
• Most important (2 games vs. Detroit)
• 7pt lead on 9th place Calgary

The odds are against Calgary and I have a feeling that a lot of Babies will be born in and around Dec. 2010 and Jan. 2011 if the Flames miss the Playoffs… here’s hoping for a Miracle on Ice, the 2010 version!

Always a Pleasure

naoto

There’s been a whole bunch of discussion on this topic in the last couple of years, and the NHL board of governors is reportedly exploring ways to eliminate dangerous hits from the game. As far as I’m concerned, the rules are already there to penalize the problem hits.

For example, Matt Cooke’s hit on Marc Savard a few nights ago:

And section 21.1 of the NHL rule book:

A match penalty shall be imposed on any player or goalkeeper who deliberately attempts to injure an opponent in any manner.

That looked to me like a deliberate attempt to injure an opponent. 100% of the contact on that hit was directed to the head of an unsuspecting player. If we can’t call that an attempt to injure, then we might as well just tear that page out of the rule book.

Exhibit B, Richards on Booth:

Very similar to the Cooke hit in that the brunt of the contact is targeting the head. In both instances, this is entirely avoidable by the player delivering the hit (that is to say, the contact could have been made shoulder-to-shoulder had the delivering player made the effort to target the hit in that way).

For the sake of comparison:

Toews receives a suicide pass, Mitchell delivers a solid hit. No infraction in my books.

I’m all for rules that protect players and reduce injuries, and I certainly believe there is a problem with head shots in hockey; however, I don’t understand why we need to explore adding more rules to address this. To me, the answer is simple: make it clear that directing a hit to the head of an opponent is considered an attempt to injure, and start assessing match penalties and suspensions to the guys who are endangering the safety of their colleagues.

Will the REAL Calgary Flames please stand up?

I have always maintained that Darryl Sutter needs to go behind the bench or find someone who can replicate his efforts from the past.  What’s the difference between a franchise like New Jersey and Calgary?  It’s the culture of the organization and the buy-in to a system, whoever it coaching the team.  Using New Jersey as an example, whatever coach has run the team, it’s been successful for a good 15 years starting with Jacques Lemaire… Robbie Ftorek… Larry Robinson… Kevin Constantine… Pat Burns… Lou Lamarillo… Claude Julien and Brent Sutter.  What Gives?

I dearly miss the Flames of 2005-2006, Darryl Sutter’s last year behind the bench before moving up to be the full time GM.  The 05-06 season wasn’t about scoring goals because they only needed a lead, whether it was 3-2, 2-1 or 1-0 and you could sit and watch with anticipation that they wouldn’t BLOW it!  The league averaged 258 Goals against and the Flames only allowed 200.  Can you believe they had FOUR 20 goal scorers (Iginla, Langkow, Phaneuf and Kobasew)??? This was still an era where the Green Hard hat was common place at the Saddledome with MANY fans wearing one and a team that finished as the #3 seed in the Western Conference with 103pts and WON the NorthWest division.  This team’s identity was about hard work, discipline that was bought into and accountability.  Darryl instilled that masterfully and wouldn’t waver from it.  He didn’t have the talent like other teams but he made guys like Stephane Yelle, Marcus Nilsson, Shean Donovan, Steve Reinprecht and Chris simon look like a heap of talent.  This was a team known for knocking you around and being mentally tough and prepared… This team would make opposing teams shutter with fear knowing they had to play at the ‘Dome, Oh Calgary Flames of 05-06, Where are thou?

A few questions I have going into the last 18 games of the season…

Was it the culture in New Jersey that made Brent Sutter successful? No.  Brent Sutter is a GREAT coach.  I’m not sure anyone else could’ve done what he did in Jersey both seasons when his No. 1 Goalie and 4-5 of his top guys go down for a good 15-20 games of the season, AND still maintain a top 5 standing in the Conference.  Sutter and Staff worked though call-ups from the minors, coached and pushed the backup goalie into a steady presence (by the way, Scott Clemensen was lingering in the AHL with the MAPLE LEAFS farm team, the MARLIES the year before going to Jersey.)  What gives for Brent in Calgary?

What’s up with Jay Bouwmeester? I can’t put my finger on it but his point production is well below his career stats and he still looks like he’s unsure of himself in Calgary.  He’s a workhorse nonetheless playing every game of his career  with the exception of 20 games in his 2nd season and he’s on pace to go 82 again this year.  This is only my observation but he seems to be held back of what he can really do.  This isn’t a knock on Brent Sutter but with two puck carrying defensemen, it seems that he’s being asked to ’stay at home’ more and let Mark Giordano carry the puck up the ice.  Granted he’s never played on a team was supposed to succeed, however, I perceive that Jay-Bo could be doing more within this system and needs his reigns loosened just a bit by the system.

Are we the Toronto Maple Leafs of the West? NO! NO! NO! Okay, so we have 5 ex-Maple Leafs on the roster.  Keep in mind that these are guys that the Leafs had no interest in keeping or building around.  Jamal Mayers is a great upgrade to Brandon Prust who seemed to think that fighting was the only way to stay with the Flames… Stajan works hard and knows what it takes to play with top players (e.g. Mats Sundin, Alexander Mogilny, Gary Roberts and Joe Nieuwendyk just to name a few…) Hagman can find the back of the net, whether he played with the Dallas Stars or the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs (he WILL start scoring!).   Finally, Ian White checks his ego at the door and does what is expected of him.  I can only pray that Vesa Toskala plays like he can with a decent defense in front of him.

This team will come together for a decent playoff push but in order to really make a splash for seeds 6-8, they’ll have to remind teams WHO they are and WHAT they’re about!

Always a Pleasure

naoto

History was made with a trade between Calgary and Edmonton! Just be glad it wasn’t a Russ Courtnall for Jon Kordic type embarassment the Leafs made with Montreal 20 years ago…

Curtis McElhinney to ANA for Vesa Toskala

Was there no one better to go after? Watching this guy like a hawk in Toronto was making me blind.  His selfish pouting and declaration of being a #1 goalie made me want to wretch.  Can someone get Roman Turek’s agent on the line, he would have been better! (Okay, maybe not but you get the point.)  The Leafs don’t have the D that the Flames have but Toskala gives me no comfort unless he can win every game he plays from now on ’til the Playoffs.  Finally, I hope he’s not a bad locker room guy like he was in Toronto… Kipper should keep his countryman in line though!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlAW8Xyl8Eo (Exhibit A vs. Toni Lyndman and BUF)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meFICJYORvA (Exhibit B vs NYI)

Dustin Boyd to NAS for a 4th round pick (2010)

Boyd’s time was up.  Darryl did his best to sound professional and ‘kind’ but really, he’s played 48, 71 and now 60 games in three years and his improvement was a mild swelling (8, 22 and 19pts in those three years).  Not enough for the big expectations of the Flames.

Aaron Johnson and a 3rd Round pick in 2010 or 2011 to EDM for Steve Staios

Having a chance to speak with a family friend of Steve Staios (This was while he was in EDM), he’s all hard work, character and heart.  The exact things that endear yourself to the Sutter family.  He’s into the twilight of his career and was a key member of the 2006 run to the cup for the Oilers.  He’ll bring the kind of depth and leadership that Marty Gelinas had back in 2004.  Can he stay healthy for the Playoff push? If yes, we’re in!

Always a Pleasure!

naoto

Okay, so we’ve won two of our last three… as Shania would say, “That don’t impress me much!”

I’m sorry to say this but the Flames are supposed to win these games with or without the Stajan’s, Hagman’s and the Kotalik’s.  Simply put, they’re getting their feet wet and to do it against teams like Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay is a good thing.  Wait ’til next week when we’ll play the surging Ottawa Senators, Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks… that’ll be the true measure for the Flames.

Being at last nights game, it was great to see the new guys in action and to be honest, they didn’t play well but well enough to win.  Good things included Kotalik, who looked like he wanted to play, Higgins and his Green hard hat style play, Boyd who really worked his butt off and Glencross with his resurgence of an all around player.  My highlight was the Giordano hit on Pitkanen.

4 wins in the next 5 games will solidify my faith in the trades but anything less than 3 wins and it’s going to be like walking on egg shells around the management offices of the Calgary Flames.

Always a pleasure.

naoto

Now that we’ve seen each team in the Flames-Leafs blockbuster play a game how does the deal work?

For Calgary:

This was a move that sent a message to the team… Play to the expectations or we’ll find guys who are hungry enough to do it, plain and simple.  I have an inkling that Dion wasn’t being the best locker room guy and wanted out.  It’s emotional enough to be traded and it seems like his emotions were from the shock but seeing him in the interviews over in Toronto suggests that he wanted out… BAD! 

IAN WHITE is a steady defenceman who is getting better at reading the play offesively and his stick work and ability to shut down players will make up for anything Dion could’ve been doing.  Some more food for thought… Ian White was rumored to be in line for the Captaincy in Toronto, which has now been left vacant for Dion…

MATT STAJAN, remember folks, he broke into the league playing with guys like Mats Sundin, Gary Roberts, Joe Nieuwendyk, Alex Mogilny, Ron Francis (briefly), Brian Leetch (briefly) and Owen Nolan… He can definitely play alongside Iginla and by the way, he had flashes of good playmaking for Iggy during the Philly game, just seems like the timing is off… And for the icing on the cake, Stajan can and does win face offs, which is more than all the Centermen can say on the Flames…

JAMAL MAYERS is tough, gritty and Sutter brand hockey.  He’s fast, wins faceoffs and is a team-first guy (Yes, he asked to be traded from Toronto, only because he’s 35 and won’t be in their short term plans of rebuilding)…

NIKLAS HAGMAN is happy to be back in the Western Conference (had some good years with the Stars in Dallas) and was the Flames best player among these 4.  Quick with his hands, has a knack for the net and likes to shoot.  He was Toronto’s leading goal scorer for good reason and guess who he often played with??? Yep, Matt Stajan… these two and Iggy will be an upgrade from any other line combo seen this year with Iggy.

For Toronto…

DION PHANEUF has become the official face of the Toronto Maple Leafs and by the looks of it, he’s enjoying every bit of the spotlight.  Something that he may have wanted here but instead became the whipping boy for everything gone bad with the Flames… (He scored an F on my report card!) After seeing his first game as a Leaf, I couldn’t help but wonder why he stopped doing those things for Calgary.  He was hitting, fighting, shooting and being a leader… Yikes!

FREDRICK SJOSTROM was Fredrick Sjostrom… fast, hard working and feisty.  He worked well on the Peanlty Kill tonight and got an assist on the first Maple Leaf goal by Nikolai Kulemin… He showed flashes of this in Calgary but seemed lost in the system Sutter was instilling into the players.  He’ll continue on his steady-ness in Toronto.

KEITH AULIE is all potential and a kid who stands at 6.6ft.  He was coveted by Brian Burke and was a key piece as to why 4 established players were given up.

Winner: I hate to say it but this stinks of a Toronto Maple Leaf steal… The Flames will kick themselves when Dion steps it up to next level, superstardom ala Doug Gilmour back in 1990.  Why do I say this? He’s changed the culture of the Toronto Maple Leafs… He’s stepped up to the plate as a leader and the players are feeding off of this.  His ego has now found a home.  For the Flames, these are just four guys trying their best to improve a struggling club.  They’re not expected to be saviours but are expected to contribute to the club with their steady play…

Always a pleasure!

naoto

Sutter’s been a busy guy this weekend. TSN is reporting another deal by the Flames’ GM, this one sending Jokinen and Prust to the Rangers for Chris Higgins and Ales Kotalik.

I think Sutter is sending out a message loud and clear today; that message being: “I’m cutting lose the deadweight”.

When Dion Phaneuf scored on a one-timer to put the Flames up 4-1 on the Oilers last night, I couldn’t help but wonder how many more times we would see Phaneuf celebrating as a Flame. Daryl Sutter didn’t keep me waiting long for the answer.

I won’t belabour the details of the trade, since you can get those from any of a variety of reputable (or not) news sources. I do have some thoughts of my own to add to the analysis, though.

It’s all about goals

This is a very simplified take on things, but take a look at the goals scored among the players traded in this deal. Phaneuf and Sjostrom total 11 goals, while the foursome on their way to Calgary have tallied 47 this season (point totals are 28 and 108, respectively). Obviously there are plenty more variables at play here, but one thing is obvious to me: this trade is meant to address Calgary’s scoring troubles. Matt Stajan’s 41 point immediately make him the Flames’ second-leading scorer, trailing only Jarome Iginla (by 10 points), and leading Rene Bourque by a single point. This leads me to agree with Pierre McGuire; on NBC this morning he called this trade a great short-term deal for the Flames, but good in the long-term for the Leafs. Obviously there’s the whole prospect thing at play where Aulie is concerned, but I suspect that McGuire is suggesting Phaneuf will pay dividends in Toronto as well. I’m not so sure…

Phaneuf in Toronto

Dion Phanuef strikes me as the type of player who is susceptible to distraction and pressure. If you’re a Maple Leaf, Toronto boasts distractions and pressure aplenty; I don’t think Toronto is the change of scenery that this guy needs. My prediction is that he will be wearing a different team’s colours within three years. Much like Joe Thornton, I think Dion Phaneuf would benefit from the obscurity of playing in a non-traditional hockey market.

The dollars and cents

The Flames have been making use of pretty much their full cap space since the beginning of the salary cap era. How does this deal affect the cap situation? In short, it frees up 4.25 million dollars for next season. Between Sjostrom and Phaneuf, the Flames are moving $7.25 million, and in return are accepting $6.93 million in return; however, Stajan, Mayers, and White are all free agents after this year (White being RFA, currently making $850,000). This means that Hagman is the only player committed to beyond next season. Meanwhile, the Flames rid themselves of Phaneuf’s $6.5 million cap hit that extends to 2014. This certainly opens up more opportunities for what Sutter can do in the off-season (spoiler: Bourque and Giordano get their earned raises AND stay in Calgary).

The verdict

The writing has been on the wall for a while where Phaneuf is concerned. Despite the repeated denials by Sutter and Phaneuf, you got the feeling that something was going to go down. By trading for several players like this as opposed to trying to land a one-for-one marquee deal or a high cost rental (ie. Kovalchuk), Sutter is spreading out the risk at the cost of potential impact. This deal should immediately give the Flames some improved scoring depth, dipping into an area where they already have considerable talent in order to pay for it. In the long-term it allows them to unload a contract that is starting to look overpriced. Ultimately, this trade gets my approval for that reason.

What next?

Think Sutter’s going to call it quits after this deal? I doubt it. I tend to agree with Kent Wilson over on Matchsticks and Gasoline about Martin Biron being an attractive target as a back-up for Kipper. I’ve heard some positive sentiment towards Curtis McElhinney lately, but consider this quote from Kent’s article:

Curtis McElhinney is currently 71st in the league in terms of ES SV%. That’s the single worst 5on5 save rate of any goalie that has appeared in 10 games this year.

It would make sense to add a little insurance if this team wants to be a serious contender.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

Hey, did you hear we won a game last night? And we scored six goals. It was against the Oilers, so take it for what it’s worth, but still, it’s nice to break out of that rut. On the topic of that game, I think Sheldon Souray would be well advised to stay away from Jarome Iginla; nothing good comes of that (so far this season: concussion and fractured hand). Come to think of it, he should maybe try to avoid fighting altogether (see: fight with Byron Ritchie where he suffered a separated shoulder).

I imagine we’ll get a look at the new faces tomorrow night against the Flyers. Back in the win column and time to get serious.