Explaining Phaneuf’s performance
If you follow the Flames, I probably don’t need to tell you that Dion Phaneuf’s numbers have been disappointing this season.
In 41 games, Dion has put up 3 goals, 23 assists, 26 points, and a -8 +/-. Let’s extrapolate that over 82 games so that we can compare it against the first three seasons of his career.
| Year | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 82 | 20 | 29 | 49 | +5 |
| 2006/07 | 79 | 17 | 33 | 50 | +10 |
| 2007/08 | 82 | 17 | 43 | 60 | +12 |
| 2008/09 (projected) | 82 | 6 | 46 | 52 | -16 |
A good thing to note here are that Phaneuf doesn’t miss many games. So far he’s missed a grand total of three regular season games over three and a half NHL seasons. Pretty impressive for a guy who plays as physical as Dion. We also see a positive trend in terms of the assist and point totals; however, the goals and plus-minus totals show a shocking drop-off through the first half of this season.
At his current pace, Phaneuf’s goal total would be a third of his previous worst total. Worse than that, though, is a +/- that is 21 goals worse than his career-worst. And this is on a team that is currently winning their division and performing as one of the better teams in the NHL.
I’ve spent some time trying to explain the reason for these numbers. It was late Friday evening when I fired up NHL 09 on the Xbox and realized what Dion’s affliction is: it’s the “EA Curse” (known to football fans as the “Madden Curse“).
Who else has been afflicted by the NHL version of the curse?
Owen Nolan (NHL ‘01) - Nolan’s went from playing 78 games in 1999/2000 to only 57 games in 2000/01. He also saw his goals-assists-points totals drop from 44-40-84 to 24-25-49.
Mario Lemieux (NHL ‘02) - After his comeback to the Penguins in 2000/01 that saw him score 76 points in only 43 games, Lemieux was hampered by injury through much of the 2001/02 season, only playing 24 games (although he did tally an additional 31 points in that time). Maybe leading Canada to an Olympic gold medal could overshadow the curse here, but it was the beginning of a decline that saw Lemieux only score 36 goals in the parts of the coming three seasons that he participated in before retiring for good.
Jarome Iginla (NHL ‘03) - Phaneuf’s teammate was coming off of a 52 goal season in 20001/02 where he was a Hart Trophy finalist and an integral part of Canada’s Olympic gold medal win. Expectations were high, and Iginla’s numbers dropped off: 35 goals and 32 assists in 75 games, 29 points fewer than the previous season. It took a few seasons, but by 2006/07 Iginla found his way back into the 90+ point range and has kept on that pace ever since.
Dany Heatley (NHL ‘04) - 41 goals and 48 assists in 2002/03 had expectations high for Heatley in 03/04 until the car crash that took the life of teammate Dan Snyder. After recovering from the injuries he sustained, Heatley managed to play in 31 games, scoring 13 goals. He never played for the Thrashers again after that, heading to Ottawa for a change of scenery.
Markus Naslund (NHL ‘05) - Averaging 93 points in he prior three seasons, Naslund played only 13 games in 2004/05, all with Swedish club MODO, during the NHL’s lockout season.
Who wasn’t hit by it?
Vincent Lecavalier (NHL ‘06), Alexander Ovechkin (NHL ‘07), and Eric Staal (NHL ‘08) - No curse for these guys, unless you call Ovechkin’s drop from 106 points to 92 points a huge slide. His +2 to -19 slide is worth noting.
As the Flames continue to win night in and night out, we can hope that Phaneuf overcomes the effects of the EA Curse to better help the team to continue that roll.
