Explaining Phaneuf’s performance
If you follow the Flames, I probably don’t need to tell you that Dion Phaneuf’s numbers have been disappointing this season.
In 41 games, Dion has put up 3 goals, 23 assists, 26 points, and a -8 +/-. Let’s extrapolate that over 82 games so that we can compare it against the first three seasons of his career.
| Year | GP | G | A | P | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 82 | 20 | 29 | 49 | +5 |
| 2006/07 | 79 | 17 | 33 | 50 | +10 |
| 2007/08 | 82 | 17 | 43 | 60 | +12 |
| 2008/09 (projected) | 82 | 6 | 46 | 52 | -16 |
A good thing to note here are that Phaneuf doesn’t miss many games. So far he’s missed a grand total of three regular season games over three and a half NHL seasons. Pretty impressive for a guy who plays as physical as Dion. We also see a positive trend in terms of the assist and point totals; however, the goals and plus-minus totals show a shocking drop-off through the first half of this season.
At his current pace, Phaneuf’s goal total would be a third of his previous worst total. Worse than that, though, is a +/- that is 21 goals worse than his career-worst. And this is on a team that is currently winning their division and performing as one of the better teams in the NHL.
I’ve spent some time trying to explain the reason for these numbers. It was late Friday evening when I fired up NHL 09 on the Xbox and realized what Dion’s affliction is: it’s the “EA Curse” (known to football fans as the “Madden Curse“).
Who else has been afflicted by the NHL version of the curse?
Owen Nolan (NHL ‘01) - Nolan’s went from playing 78 games in 1999/2000 to only 57 games in 2000/01. He also saw his goals-assists-points totals drop from 44-40-84 to 24-25-49.
Mario Lemieux (NHL ‘02) - After his comeback to the Penguins in 2000/01 that saw him score 76 points in only 43 games, Lemieux was hampered by injury through much of the 2001/02 season, only playing 24 games (although he did tally an additional 31 points in that time). Maybe leading Canada to an Olympic gold medal could overshadow the curse here, but it was the beginning of a decline that saw Lemieux only score 36 goals in the parts of the coming three seasons that he participated in before retiring for good.
Jarome Iginla (NHL ‘03) - Phaneuf’s teammate was coming off of a 52 goal season in 20001/02 where he was a Hart Trophy finalist and an integral part of Canada’s Olympic gold medal win. Expectations were high, and Iginla’s numbers dropped off: 35 goals and 32 assists in 75 games, 29 points fewer than the previous season. It took a few seasons, but by 2006/07 Iginla found his way back into the 90+ point range and has kept on that pace ever since.
Dany Heatley (NHL ‘04) - 41 goals and 48 assists in 2002/03 had expectations high for Heatley in 03/04 until the car crash that took the life of teammate Dan Snyder. After recovering from the injuries he sustained, Heatley managed to play in 31 games, scoring 13 goals. He never played for the Thrashers again after that, heading to Ottawa for a change of scenery.
Markus Naslund (NHL ‘05) - Averaging 93 points in he prior three seasons, Naslund played only 13 games in 2004/05, all with Swedish club MODO, during the NHL’s lockout season.
Who wasn’t hit by it?
Vincent Lecavalier (NHL ‘06), Alexander Ovechkin (NHL ‘07), and Eric Staal (NHL ‘08) - No curse for these guys, unless you call Ovechkin’s drop from 106 points to 92 points a huge slide. His +2 to -19 slide is worth noting.
As the Flames continue to win night in and night out, we can hope that Phaneuf overcomes the effects of the EA Curse to better help the team to continue that roll.
January 11th, 2009 at 9:01 pm
This was great reading, however, given that Iggy played the majority of the season under Darryl Sutter and the Everything Defence mantra, I’d take him off the list of the curse although based on his numbers it could be seen like that…
As for Dion, must be a triple whammy for him because I’m starting to see a combination of Elisha-EA-Pardy as factors…
1) Dating Cuthbert can be distracting in itself but it was bound to catch up to him… and Sean Avery didn’t help (when does he ever?)
2) EA, yes the curse is real, the last 3 cover boys for the NBA had an average of 70 games lost due to injury (Tony Parker ‘09, Gilbert Arenas ‘08 and Tracy McGrady ‘07)
3) A combination of playing against top players of other teams and having to carry Adam Pardy is taking its toll… Pardy is benefitting the way Phaneuf did when he played with guys like Roman Hamrlik.
January 11th, 2009 at 10:00 pm
I don’t totally buy that Phaneuf’s numbers are the result of playing against other teams’ top players. I can see that affecting his +/- (although I wouldn’t expect it to be so dramatic); however, with the amount of powerplay time that Phaneuf gets, he should have a lot more than 3 goals at the midway point.
I’d also like to think that Phaneuf is enough of a professional that the Cuthbert/Avery saga hasn’t distracted him, but I think it probably has.
January 12th, 2009 at 12:34 am
The playing against a team’s top player was Darryl Sutter’s argument and according to him, he’s not worried about Dion’s performance thus far, he just needs to work through it… The Fan 960 guys aren’t convinced of the playing against top players either but having watched him in 4 of the last 5 home games, he’s looked sluggish and hesitant to shoot, not to mention when he does shoot, it’s no where near the net… seems like a confidence and mental battle he needs to overcome… he’s still a workhorse though!
January 12th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Trevor and I were actually talking about that, and he was saying how he notices the number of poor quality shots that Phaneuf seems to be taking. All things considered, it’s easy to get into a rut and tough to get out of one. It’s only a matter of time before he does get his confidence back, and it’ll be worth the wait.